Part 4: Earnings Plays — Automate the Setup, Timing, and IV Crush Detection

Use cases at a glance

Building your earnings watchlist

Start with your top 10–20 tickers you trade actively. Keep an earnings watchlist in your config:

earnings_watchlist:
  - AAPL
  - MSFT
  - GOOGL
  - AMZN
  - TSLA
  - NVDA
  - META
  - NFLX
  - SPY
  - QQQ

Earnings calendar agent

The agent fetches upcoming earnings for watchlist tickers using multiple sources: Tradier's market events endpoint, Polygon.io's events data, or a public earnings calendar API. It alerts at three key times:

• 7 days out: "Earnings in 7 days — begin IV monitoring"
• 2 days out: "Earnings in 2 days — IV elevated, consider entry"
• Morning after: "Earnings reported after-hours last night — check IV crush"

Here's the earnings agent YAML config:

agents:
  earnings-monitor:
    description: "Earnings calendar, expected move, and IV crush detection"
    tools:
      - tradier-api
      - polygon-api
    config:
      tradier_token: "${TRADIER_API_TOKEN}"
      polygon_token: "${POLYGON_API_KEY}"
      earnings_watchlist:
        - AAPL
        - MSFT
        - GOOGL
        - AMZN
        - TSLA
        - NVDA
        - NFLX
      alert_thresholds:
        days_ahead_1: 7
        days_ahead_2: 2
      expected_move_source: "atm_straddle"
      iv_rank_tracking: true
      post_earnings_crush_check: true
    output:
      format: markdown
      channel: slack

Expected move calculator

The expected move is estimated using the ATM straddle for the nearest expiration after earnings:

Expected Move ≈ ATM Call Price + ATM Put Price

Example: AAPL is at $180, and the ATM straddle (180 call + 180 put) costs $8. Expected move is approximately ±$8 (±4.4%). This gives the market's consensus on how much the stock could move in either direction by expiration. This is a rough estimate—the actual implied move varies based on skew and the specific expiration used.

IV rank into earnings — entry timing signals

Combine the IV rank scanner (Part 3) with the earnings calendar. Generate a combined view showing IV rank AND days to earnings for each ticker on the watchlist. Format:

AAPL — IV Rank: 72 (ELEVATED) — 5 days to earnings — ⚡ SETUP IN PROGRESS
TSLA — IV Rank: 68 (ELEVATED) — 12 days to earnings — Good entry window
NVDA — IV Rank: 45 (FAIR) — 2 days to earnings — IV still building, monitor

Post-earnings IV crush monitor

The morning after earnings, the agent compares the IV from the evening before (T-1) to the IV at 9:30 AM market open (T+1). If IV drops >30%, flag it as "IV CRUSH DETECTED" with the percentage.

Alert format: IV CRUSH — AAPL | Earnings reported after-hours last night. IV: 28% (vs. 42% yesterday). Crush: -33%. Position impact: Straddles/strangles lost value due to IV collapse despite move.

Historical earnings move analysis

Compare the expected move (from the straddle) to the actual move for the past 4 earnings reports. This tells you if the market is pricing in too much or too little move.

AAPL Historical Earnings Moves:
- Q1 2026: Expected ±4.0%, Actual ±4.8% (overestimate)
- Q4 2025: Expected ±3.8%, Actual ±3.1% (underestimate)
- Q3 2025: Expected ±4.1%, Actual ±5.2% (overestimate)
- Q2 2025: Expected ±3.9%, Actual ±3.7% (fair)
Average: Expected ±3.95%, Actual ±4.20%

Use this to calibrate your entry. If historical moves exceed expected, the straddle is underpriced. If actual moves are consistently lower, the straddle is overpriced.

HEARTBEAT schedule

Multiple runs throughout the earnings lifecycle:

• Daily earnings calendar check: 0 8 * * 1-5 (every morning at 8:00 AM)
• 7-day alert: Triggered when countdown reaches 7 days
• 2-day alert: Triggered when countdown reaches 2 days
• Post-earnings IV check: 30 9 * * 1-5 (9:30 AM morning after earnings)

Sample earnings brief output

Here's what a pre-earnings brief looks like for a hypothetical week:

FAQ

How is the expected move calculated from the options chain?

The expected move is estimated by summing the at-the-money straddle price for the nearest expiration after earnings: expected move ≈ ATM call price + ATM put price. This gives the market's consensus on how much the stock could move in either direction by expiration. For example, if AAPL is at $180 and the ATM straddle for the post-earnings expiration costs $8, the expected move is approximately ±$8 (±4.4%). This is a rough estimate—the actual implied move can vary based on skew and the specific expiration used.

When should I enter an earnings play?

Entry timing depends on your strategy. If you're buying a straddle or strangle hoping for a large move, enter 5–7 days before earnings when IV is elevated but before the final run-up (IV peaks in the last 1–2 days before the report). If you're selling premium against elevated earnings IV, enter 1–2 days before and close immediately after the report. The IV rank scanner in Part 3 flags when a ticker's IV rank crosses thresholds—the earnings agent in this part adds the earnings date context so you see both together.

What happens if earnings are reported after-hours?

After-hours earnings are the most common case. The IV crush happens overnight—options priced before close reflect full earnings uncertainty; options priced the next morning reflect resolved uncertainty. The post-earnings IV check runs at 9:30 AM the morning after a ticker on your watchlist reported earnings, comparing the previous night's closing IV to the morning's opening IV.

How do I use historical move data?

Compare expected move to historical average. If expected (from straddle) is ±4% but history shows ±5.8%, the straddle is underpricing the move—good for straddle buyers. If expected is ±6% but history shows ±3.5%, the straddle is overpricing—good for short strangles. This is a statistical edge, not a guarantee.