Why the Dashboard Matters
Parts 1-4 give you deep, specialized monitoring of Fed decisions, inflation, labor, and growth. But most weeks there are no major releases. You wake up Wednesday and think: what's the current state of the economy? Is recession risk rising or falling? Are rates still high?
The Monday dashboard solves this problem. Every Monday morning at 8:00 AM ET, you get one structured report that captures the current state of all major indicators, without waiting for the next data release. It's a consistent weekly touchpoint that answers: "Here's what the economy looks like right now."
This is the centerpiece of the entire series. Investors, business owners, and traders will build their week around this brief.
Dashboard Architecture
The Monday dashboard agent is a master agent that calls sub-agents (or makes multiple API calls) to fetch and compute 8 different modules, assembles the results into a single brief, and delivers it by 8:00 AM ET every Monday.
Pseudo-code architecture:
Monday 8:00 AM agent trigger:
For each of 8 modules:
- Call sub-agent or fetch data
- Compute current value and status
- Store in results dict
Assemble results into formatted report:
- Current indicator values with status badges
- 2-3 sentence interpretation of current state
- Next 4 weeks of scheduled releases
- One paragraph of week-ahead context
Deliver report via chosen channel (email, Slack, etc)
The 8 Indicator Modules
Each module represents a different facet of the economy. The dashboard pulls the most recent value for each, regardless of when it was last updated.
Module 1: Fed Funds Rate (Daily Data)
Source: FRED series EFFR
Update frequency: Daily
Status classification:
- TIGHT: >5%
- NORMAL: 2-4%
- LOOSE: <2%
Module 2: Yield Curve (2s10s Spread, Daily Data)
Source: FRED series T10Y2Y
Update frequency: Daily
Status classification:
- NORMAL: Positive spread
- FLAT: 0 to -0.25%
- INVERTED: <-0.25%
Module 3: CPI YoY Inflation (Monthly Data)
Source: BLS series CUSR0000SA0 (headline CPI)
Update frequency: Monthly (mid-month)
Status classification:
- HOT: >3%
- WARM: 2-3%
- COOL: 1-2%
- COLD: <1%
Module 4: Core PCE YoY (Monthly Data)
Source: BEA data, also available via FRED
Update frequency: Monthly
Status classification: Compare to Fed's 2% target
- ABOVE TARGET: >2.1%
- AT TARGET: 1.9-2.1%
- BELOW TARGET: <1.9%
Module 5: NFP 3-Month Average (Monthly Data)
Source: FRED series PAYEMS
Update frequency: Monthly (first Friday)
Status classification:
- STRONG: >200K jobs/month
- HEALTHY: 100-200K
- SOFTENING: 0-100K
- CONTRACTING: <0
Module 6: Unemployment Rate (Monthly Data)
Source: FRED series UNRATE
Update frequency: Monthly (first Friday)
Status classification:
- TIGHT: <4%
- NORMAL: 4-5%
- ELEVATED: 5-6%
- HIGH: >6%
Module 7: GDPNow Current Quarter Estimate (Weekly/2-3x per week)
Source: Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Update frequency: 2-3x per week
Display: Current estimate and last update date. Example: "GDPNow Q1 2026: +2.4% (as of March 20)"
Module 8: Yield Curve Recession Probability (Monthly Data)
Source: FRED series RECPROUSM156N (St. Louis Fed's Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium recession probability model)
Update frequency: Monthly
Status classification:
- <20%: Low recession risk
- 20-30%: Elevated risk
- >30%: High recession risk
Status Classification System
The dashboard uses color-coded status badges (same as the rest of the series) to make scanning easy:
- HOT — Red zone, hot condition
- WARM — Amber zone, elevated condition
- NORMAL — Teal zone, healthy condition
- COOL — Blue zone, cool/loose condition
Upcoming Releases Calendar
The dashboard includes a "Next 4 Weeks" section listing all scheduled releases. For the Monday the briefing goes out, it typically looks like:
Week-Ahead Context
After the 8 modules and releases calendar, include 2-3 sentences of human interpretation. This is where the agent synthesizes the data into a coherent narrative:
"The labor market remains tight with unemployment at 4.0% and NFP running above trend. Inflation is decelerating but still above the Fed's target. The yield curve remains inverted (-0.18%), consistent with historical pre-recession signals though recession probability models remain below 20%. GDPNow tracks Q1 at +2.4%. Overall: late-cycle expansion with some leading indicator softening. Watch for any hot CPI print or sharp claims spike."
This summary should NOT make predictions or give investment advice. It should simply state the current state of affairs and what to watch for this week.
Customizing Your Dashboard
The 8-module baseline covers all traders and investors. But you might want to customize based on your specific interests:
- Real estate investors: Add Module 9 = 30-year mortgage rate (FRED series MORTGAGE30US). Add 10 = housing starts (Census API).
- Manufacturing-focused business: Add Module = ISM Manufacturing PMI (FRED series MANEMP as proxy; ISM PMI itself isn't available via free API, so maintain it as a manual input or find a published data source)
- Consumer retail focus: Add Module = Retail sales MoM change and trend
- Currency traders: Add Module = DXY USD Index (via alternative free source, or maintain as manual input)
The modular architecture makes this easy. Each module is independent; adding one is just a new API call + status classification rule.
HEARTBEAT Schedule
# Master Monday dashboard (primary) 0 8 * * 1 — 8:00 AM ET every Monday: run full 8-module dashboard # Weekday brief (optional light version) 0 8 * * 2-5 — 8:00 AM ET Tuesday-Friday: lighter version showing only what changed since Monday
Sample Full Monday Dashboard
FAQ
What time does the Monday dashboard deliver?
The dashboard runs at 8:00 AM ET every Monday. This gives you a complete macro context picture before markets open at 9:30 AM ET, and before any Monday morning economic releases (some minor data releases on Monday mornings). The dashboard aggregates the latest available data from all sources — it doesn't wait for new releases; it reports the most recent value of each indicator regardless of when it last updated.
What leading indicators does the dashboard include?
Beyond the four indicators covered in Parts 1-4, the dashboard adds: the Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Index) available via FRED series USSLIND — a composite of 10 leading indicators that tends to turn negative before recessions; the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI (available via FRED series MANEMP proxy or manual config); and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (FRED series T10YIE) which shows market-implied inflation expectations. Together these create a fuller picture of where the economy is heading, not just where it's been.
Can I customize which indicators appear in my dashboard?
Yes — the dashboard agent config uses a YAML list of indicator modules. You can add or remove modules, set custom thresholds for status classifications (e.g., define what "hot" means for your use case), and specify which channels receive the report. If you're primarily a real estate investor, you might add the 30-year mortgage rate (FRED series MORTGAGE30US) as a module. If you're a business owner, you might prioritize the ISM Services PMI over the manufacturing index. The modular architecture makes customization straightforward.