Use Cases at a Glance
FOMC Meeting Countdown
Alerts 3 days before, morning of, and immediately after rate decision announcement.
Rate Decision Summary
Pre-decision brief with current rate; post-decision with new rate, hike/cut/hold, YTD change.
Yield Curve Tracking
Daily Treasury yield snapshots. Monitor 2s10s spread for inversion signals and shape changes.
Inversion Alerts
Alert when yield curve inverts (2s10s < 0) and when inversion ends — historically 12-18 months before recession.
FRED API Setup
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis maintains FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — a free repository of 800,000+ economic series including all fed funds rates, Treasury yields, and derived spreads.
- Go to fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/api_key.html
- Register for a free account with your email
- Generate an API key
- Store as environment variable:
FRED_API_KEY
Key FRED series used in this part:
EFFR— Effective federal funds rate (daily)DFEDTARU— Fed funds target rate upper bound (updated at 2pm on decision days)DGS2— 2-year Treasury yield (daily)DGS10— 10-year Treasury yield (daily)T10Y2Y— 10Y-2Y yield spread, pre-calculated by FRED (daily)
Rate limits: 120 requests/minute with API key. This series makes light use of FRED — typically 3-5 requests per scheduled run.
FOMC Calendar Agent
The Federal Open Market Committee meets 8 times per year, roughly every 6 weeks. The Fed publishes the meeting schedule a year in advance.
Agent configuration example:
name: fed-monitor
description: FOMC meeting countdown and rate decision monitoring
frequency: daily (multiple schedules, see HEARTBEAT section)
fomc_dates_2026:
- 2026-01-28
- 2026-03-18
- 2026-05-06
- 2026-06-17
- 2026-07-29
- 2026-09-16
- 2026-10-28
- 2026-12-16
api_keys:
fred_api_key: ${FRED_API_KEY}
Alert pattern:
- 3 days before FOMC: "FOMC meeting in 3 days — decision at 2:00 PM ET, press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Current rate: [rate]. Watch inflation and employment data before the decision."
- Morning of FOMC decision: "🏛️ TODAY IS FOMC DAY — Decision announcement at 2:00 PM ET. Current rate: [rate]. Press conference follows at 2:30 PM ET."
- 2:05 PM ET on decision day: Poll FRED for updated rate. If rate changed, announce immediately with direction and magnitude. If hold, confirm hold.
Treasury Yield Curve Monitoring
What it is: The yield curve plots Treasury yields across different maturities (3-month, 2-year, 10-year, 30-year). Normally it slopes upward — longer maturities have higher yields. When short-term yields exceed long-term yields, it inverts — a historically accurate recession predictor.
The 2s10s spread: The most-watched indicator is the 2-year vs 10-year spread. A positive spread is normal; a negative spread (inversion) signals market expectations of falling rates due to economic weakness. FRED pre-calculates this as series T10Y2Y.
Daily monitoring routine:
- Each day after market close (8:00 PM ET), pull DGS2 (2-year) and DGS10 (10-year) from FRED
- Compute spread: 10Y - 2Y
- Store in time-series database or log for trend analysis
- Compare to prior day and last 30 days for shape context
Alert conditions:
- Spread crosses 0 (inversion begins): alert immediately with new spread value and date of crossing
- Spread goes from negative to positive (inversion ends): alert with note that this historically precedes recession end by 12-18 months
- Spread narrows by >50 basis points in a single week: alert with "rapid flattening" note, watch for inversion risk
Rate Decision Brief Format
The pre-decision and post-decision briefs should follow a consistent structure for easy scanning.
Pre-decision brief (7 days before):
🏛️ FOMC MEETING IN 7 DAYS — March 18, 2026 Current Rate: 5.25%-5.50% (unchanged since July 2024) Recent Trend: 1 hold, prior: 1 hold, prior: 1 hold Market Pricing: [CME FedWatch probability — note: not available via free API, suggest manual check or link] Next 3 Inflation Readings: CPI coming March 12 (consensus +3.2% YoY), PCE coming March 31 Labor Market: Unemployment 4.0%, NFP +228K last month Watch For: Any hot inflation print between now and decision day would increase hawkish pressure.
Post-decision brief (2:05 PM ET on decision day):
✅ FOMC DECISION: HOLD Rate Unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% Consecutive Holds: 10th hold in a row YTD Change: +0bps (no change this year) 2s10s Spread: -0.18% (inverted, no change from prior close) Powell Press Conference: 2:30 PM ET (now starting) Next FOMC: May 6, 2026
HEARTBEAT Schedule
The series uses multiple schedules to maintain Fed monitoring coverage:
# Yield curve snapshot (daily after market close) 0 20 * * * — Daily 8:00 PM ET: Pull 2-year and 10-year yields, store spread # FOMC day 3-day countdown 0 9 [fomc_dates-3] * * — 3 days before FOMC: Pre-meeting alert # FOMC decision day morning alert 0 8 [fomc_dates] * * — FOMC decision day morning: Reminder alert # FOMC decision post-announcement 5 14 [fomc_dates] * * — 2:05 PM ET on FOMC day: Poll FRED for rate update, announce decision # Yield curve rapid flattening check 0 21 * * * — 9:00 PM ET daily: Compare 7-day spread change, alert if >50bps narrowing
Sample Rate Decision Brief
FAQ
When does the Fed announce rate decisions?
The FOMC meets 8 times per year, roughly every 6 weeks. The 2-day meeting concludes with a rate decision announcement at 2:00 PM ET on the final day, followed by a press conference at 2:30 PM ET with the Fed Chair. The full meeting schedule is published on the Federal Reserve's website (federalreserve.gov) a year in advance. You can maintain these dates as a static list in your agent config or fetch them programmatically from the Fed's calendar endpoint.
What is the yield curve and why does it matter?
The yield curve plots Treasury yields across different maturities (3-month, 2-year, 10-year, 30-year). Normally it slopes upward — longer maturities offer higher yields to compensate for greater uncertainty. When short-term yields exceed long-term yields, the curve inverts. An inverted curve historically precedes recessions by 6-18 months because it signals market expectations of future economic weakness and falling rates. The most-watched spread is the 2-year vs 10-year (2s10s): when negative, it's a significant recession signal.
How quickly does FRED update after a Fed announcement?
FRED typically updates the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and the target rate (DFEDTARU) within hours of a Fed announcement, often by end of day. For the most critical decisions (actual rate changes), FRED usually updates within 1-2 hours of the 2:00 PM ET announcement. For real-time monitoring on decision day, the agent checks at 2:05 PM ET on known FOMC decision days rather than continuously polling — this balances latency with API efficiency.